Fall Market Takes a Breather

By Ron Alfred De Guzman, MaxWell Realty Insights | September 09, 2026

Canada's housing market cooled again heading into fall. CREA's latest national release, covering July, showed home sales up 0.5% from June. That marked a fourth straight monthly gain. Senior economist Shaun Cathcart called the data "a carbon copy" of June. Sales edged up, listings dropped, and prices held steady. The more interesting story is happening below those headline numbers. Markets across the Prairies, Quebec, and the East Coast are steadily shifting back toward balance after a long stretch as sellers' markets. BC's Lower Mainland and Ontario's Greater Golden Horseshoe are making the same shift, moving out of buyers' market territory and into something more even.

RBC Economics' August breakdown shows that shift playing out differently from city to city. Toronto's recovery hit a bump. Resales fell 1.3% in August after building momentum since March. RBC ties the pullback partly to renewed uncertainty around the escalating Canada-US trade war, alongside supportive factors like a new housing rebate and pent-up demand. Vancouver bucked the trend, with resales jumping 8.5% seasonally adjusted. Even so, it remains the weakest of Canada's six largest markets, with prices still falling, just at a slower pace. Montreal continues to face steep affordability challenges even as more sellers step into the market and new listings climb.

Calgary cooled too. Resales slipped more than 9% from July, erasing the gains made earlier in summer and pulling activity back toward its 10-year average. New listings kept climbing, keeping inventory near historic highs. The sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped to 0.52, the lowest point since the pandemic, though RBC notes this still falls within balanced market territory rather than tipping fully toward buyers. Detached homes held up far better than condos in Calgary, down just 1.1% year over year compared to an 8% drop for condos, a sign the slowdown isn't hitting every part of the market equally.

CREA and RBC are telling a similar story from two different angles. This isn't a market stalling out. It's one recalibrating city by city after a strong summer. CREA's next national release lands September 15 and should show whether August's regional split holds true at the national level too.

Sources: CREA ("Canadian Home Sales Climb Again in July," August 18, 2026), RBC Economics ("Canada's housing markets show persistent regional splits," September 8, 2026)